IMPACTS OF NEW MEGA-AGREEMENTS – RCEP AND TPP-12 ON BIG DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A SCENARIO POST-COVID

- 16 July 2021

Trade topics: Regional Integration, MERCOSUR, CPTPP, RCEP, Trade Policy

The project's main objective is to study the macroeconomic and trade impact on different economic sectors in Brazil, Argentina and other emerging countries (India, Russia, and South Africa) arising from the creation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership in the context of a post-COVID reality.

 
It seeks to simulate the impact that joining one or both of the agreements will have on Brazil and argue that the country, as well as MERCOSUR, rethink their isolationist policies. To do this, the project will apply both quantitative and qualitative analyses through simulations from a general equilibrium model based on the Global Trade Analyses Project (GTAP) model. The project's modelling exercise will include the effects of the pandemic on all macroeconomic variables, following methodologies utilized by the WTO, World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

 
In addition, the analysis of the regulatory impact of these agreements on Brazil and Argentina allows the verification of the hypothesis that in matters where there is WTO regulation, preferential agreements reinforce the principles and rules agreed upon in the multilateral system. Thus, the multilateral system remains the regulatory model for international trade, despite the proliferation of preferential agreements, and for TBT, SPS, trade remedies and even government procurement issues, RTAs replicate or deepen multilateral rules, but always with a tendency for convergence. In matters that are not legally disciplined at the multilateral level, however, any mismatch between different agreements will further entrench any differences. The relevance of the WTO remains regardless, since multilateral agreements will determine the prevailing direction of international legal disciplines.
 

The Center for Global Trade and Investment Studies (CCGI), which is managing the project and is co-ordinated by the Chair in Brazil has developed partnerships and cooperated with several BRICS entities, in addition to maintaining regular contacts with academics and authorities in the five countries. For example, the CCGI is a founding member of the BRICS Trade & Economics Research Network (BRICS-TERN), a platform for non-governmental groups from Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, whose objective is to establish a research network on contemporary issues related to development. This network will be involved in the project. In addition, the reports will be presented to the Brazilian and Argentinean governments including Foreign Affairs and Economics Ministries, the CACEX (Council of International Trade) and the SECEX (Secretary of International Trade). Conferences will be organized with Industrial and Agricultural Associations such as C.N.I, FIESP (industry), C.N.A (agriculture) and their counterparts in Argentina. The results will also be available on the institution's website.
 

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