Is there a future for export-led growth in Pakistan?

Pakistan is once again grappling with a severe economic crisis marked by a persistent balance of payments deficit, stagnant growth, inflation, rising unemployment, and deepening poverty. At the heart of this crisis lies a chronic export shortfall. In his article, Azam Amjad Chaudhry argues that Pakistan’s economic model—historically reliant on foreign borrowing—must urgently pivot toward a coherent, export-led growth strategy.
The article outlines how Pakistan’s growth is constrained by its inability to sustain foreign exchange reserves when GDP growth exceeds 4%, due to excessive imports and insufficient exports. Traditional policy tools such as import substitution, export rebates, and energy subsidies have failed or become unsustainable under IMF constraints. Instead, the author advocates for a modern industrial policy that includes subsidized credit, reduced tariffs on intermediate goods, and targeted support for exporters.
Chaudhry emphasizes the need for both supply- and demand-side reforms. On the supply side, he recommends expanding successful initiatives like the State Bank’s TERF program and investing in export-oriented education, infrastructure, and clean energy. On the demand side, he calls for data-driven export promotion through trade missions, smarter trade negotiations, and a focus on high-value-added goods and services such as IT, health, and education.
Ultimately, the article makes a compelling case that Pakistan’s future economic stability hinges on a strategic, well-supported shift toward export-led industrialization—one that is both inclusive and globally competitive.