Geopolitical fragmentation and economic outcomes in West Africa

This paper asks how recent geopolitical ruptures affect regional economic performance in West Africa, where a sequence of military coups in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger, together with the intensification of cross-border terrorism, has challenged the institutional basis of integration. The analysis examines the hypothesis that political instability functions as a disintegrating force, weakening trade, investment, and structural transformation across the region. We examine the hypothesis that rising instability erodes the foundations of economic integration, with adverse effects on trade, investment, and structural transformation. Drawing on annual data for the fifteen ECOWAS countries over the period 1990–2022, we estimate a panel vector autoregressive model incorporating a novel index of geopolitical fragmentation. Impulse response functions indicate that fragmentation shocks generate persistent declines in intra-regional trade, foreign direct investment, and output growth, alongside slower progress in structural transformation. These findings highlight the macroeconomic costs of political dislocation and suggest that fragmentation operates as a disintegrating force in regional markets. More broadly, the analysis underscores the importance of anchoring regional
integration efforts in credible political institutions and resilient governance frameworks.

Keywords: Geopolitical fragmentation; Regional integration; West Africa; Panel VAR; ECOWAS