Trends in agricultural land use and cereal production in Tanzania: a 60-year analysis

Over six decades (1961–2021), Tanzania's agriculture transformed significantly due to population growth, policy shifts, and climate variability. Agricultural land expanded by 52% and arable land by 160%, but rapid population growth (3.38% annually) caused per capita arable land to drop by 57%. Cereal production surged 1,160%, supported by land expansion and yield improvements (from 805.7 kg/ha to 1,828.3 kg/ha). However, productivity remains below global averages due to limited mechanisation, erratic weather, and inconsistent policies. Key drivers include urbanisation (up 570% since 1960) and agriculture's declining GDP share despite its livelihood importance. Policies like Ujamaa villagisation and Kilimo Kwanza had uneven impacts. The study urges sustainable intensification, climate-resilient practices, and equitable land access. Future food security depends on technological adoption, infrastructure investment, and inclusive policies to balance productivity with environmental sustainability.

Link: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02589001.2026.2636948