Three essays on Tunisia’s trade policy

This thesis tries to identify the sources of vulnerability in the Tunisian economy by exploring supply chain vulnerabilities and the sensitivity of consumer prices to changes in international prices and trade policies, uncovering how global trade influences Tunisia’s economy. It also identifies export opportunities and ways to increase resilience. As we try to address these issues, we take into account the specificities of the Tunisian economy; the position of its industries in the value chain, the trade regime of firms i.e., offshore and onshore, and the country’s comparative advantage. The results demonstrate the need for adapted policy responses and strategic interventions to strengthen resilience and mitigatesupply chain risks, as well as the impact of shocks on consumer welfare.
This thesis explores key research questions related to the factors contributing to supply chain vulnerability, the channels through which shocks affect consumer prices, and economic resilience from a diversification perspective. To address these questions, the thesis is structured into three main chapters.
The first chapter, “COVID-19 shock on supply chains : evidence from a developing country,” examines the pandemic’s impact on supply chains. The second chapter, “COVID-19 shock passthrough to consumer prices : Econometric Modeling vs. Random Forest,” uses different methods of analyzing price transmission. The final chapter, “Tunisia’s export diversification under the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement (AfCFTA)” investigates the potential for export diversification within the
context of the AfCFTA.