Identifying Thailand’s high-potential export opportunities in ASEAN+3 countries.

South Africa - 21 November 2017

This paper aims to identify Thailand’s realistic export opportunities (REOs) in the ASEAN+3 countries (i.e. ASEAN, Greater China, Japan and South Korea), which together constitute an economically dynamic region and a strategic export destination for Thailand. Furthermore, the paper seeks to determine the extent to which Thailand already has a share in ASEAN+3 countries and where new opportunities lie. This allows the formulation of appropriate export promotion strategies for Thailand.

The methodology used is a decision support model (DSM) which uses a data-filtering system to systematically screen and eliminate less-promising product–country combinations to ultimately reveal high-potential REOs. Product–country combinations are screened on the basis of country risk; macro-economic country performance; market potential in terms of import growth and import market size; and market access conditions, including market concentration and the existence of trade barriers. The narrowed-down REOs are then categorised according to Thailand’s relative market share in, and the characteristics of, the identified import markets.

The study reveals that the ASEAN+3 countries account for about 40 per cent of the total potential export value of Thailand’s REOs in the world, with China leading the way (12.45 per cent), followed by Japan (8.56 per cent) and South Korea (6.23 per cent). However, Thailand has a relatively small or intermediately small market share in the majority of these REOs, pointing to the need for more offensive and exploratory export promotion strategies.

The ASEAN+3 countries – given that they are an abundant source of REOs for Thailand and are in Thailand’s ‘backyard’ – should receive more focused attention and resources in government export promotion efforts. The recent launch of the ASEAN Economic Community and the proposed establishment of an East Asia Free Trade Area lend weight to the idea of Thailand adopting a strong regional focus in its export activities.

The insights derived from the study are valuable for export promotion officials, industry representatives and practising exporters alike, as they constitute an easy-to-digest snapshot of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 region. This makes for more efficient planning and prioritising of export development activities, and a more streamlined approach to resource allocation. The paper represents a concise case study of the DSM in practice, which should be of particular interest to export promotion agencies, industry associations, and both new and more established exporting countries.

Available from: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/JITLP-09-2016-0019

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