PhD: Looking beyond Brexit and the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from South Africa’s perspective

South Africa - 21 November 2017

Since the formation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, multilateralism has been the dominant approach to liberalising trade. However, today there is a growing tendency towards bilateralism. This may be partly attributable to frustrations with the multilateral trade negotiations, as evidenced in the impasse in the Doha round of talks. Moreover, it is quicker and easier to negotiate and implement regional trade agreements (RTAs) than multilateral trade agreements.

Given the challenges in the multilateral arena, many countries (notably the United States) have given birth to a new ‘protectionist’ era by concentrating on bilateral trade agreements (BTAs). According to the WTO (2016), since the global financial crisis of 2008‒09, a total of 1583 trade restrictive measures have been imposed by G20 countries, and only a quarter of these measures have been eliminated. However, the question can be asked: are BTAs always negotiated in the right manner?

In the preparation phase of bilateral trade negotiations (BTNs), those products and sectors that should be prioritised in the negotiations are typically not identified. If, though, this is happening, then it is not well documented and is invariably not being done in a scientific manner. This study aims to close this gap by applying a scientific tool in the preparation phase of the BTN process, which can be used to identify, prior to the start of BTNs, those products and sectors that should be prioritised. Using such a scientific tool will become crucial for the countries of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) in their trade with the United States since the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is set to expire in 2025. Given the rise in protectionist tendencies in global trade, the renewal of this unilateral trade arrangement is highly uncertain. SACU needs to be proactive in re-engaging with the United States in the negotiation of a free trade agreement. It is vital that SACU derives meaningful gains from such a deal, given the evolving global economic landscape and the importance of exports to SACU member states.

2016‒2017 progress:
Progress on the introduction (Chapter 1) is now at an advanced stage. The literature relevant to the study (in preparation for the literature review chapter) is currently being sourced, while SACU’s and the US’ trade data is being collected and sorted.

The proposed submission date of the final thesis is April 2019

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