The Impact of Digital Trade Rule Depth on Cross-Border Digital Services Trade under the Belt and Road Initiative

Against the backdrop of the rapid rise of the digital economy, digital services trade has emerged with enormous development potential. This study selects panel data from 2008 to 2021 between China and 65 Belt and Road Initiative countries as the sample, conducting a comprehensive assessment of the impact of digital trade rule depth on digital services trade. Furthermore, the research delves into the specific pathways through which these effects materialize. Theoretically, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of digital services trade and explores the mechanisms by which digital trade rules affect trade flows in digital services. The findings reveal a significant positive correlation between the depth of digital trade rules and the volume of digital services trade. Mediation effect analysis indicates that the depth of digital trade rules promotes the development of digital services trade by reducing transaction costs and enhancing production efficiency. Additionally, heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that data mobility provisions exert the strongest influence on digital services trade, followed by trade facilitation clauses, while privacy protection provisions have a comparatively smaller impact. Based on these insights, the paper proposes policy recommendations in three key areas: establishing high-standard rules, facilitating data flows and strengthening intellectual property protection, and enhancing institutional frameworks.