Identifying regional trade potential between selected countries in the African tripartite free trade area

Background: One of the most compelling arguments for regional trade and integration in
Africa is that the African market is the most fragmented in the world, with only 16% of trade
being within the continent. Furthermore, with 14 regional economic communities (RECs),
the scale of integrated trading compared to the magnitude of trade is cause for concern.
Africa could soon witness an important milestone on its path towards increased regional
trade and improved integration with the implementation of the Tripartite Free Trade
Agreement (TFTA) involving 26 countries. However, addressing overlapping memberships
of the RECs and streamlining regulations, customs and border procedures can be a lengthy
process.
Aim: In the meantime, this study aims to identify specific intra-regional trade opportunities
among African countries to inform a more targeted approach to regional trade.
Methods: This article uses a unique approach based on the Decision Support Model (DSM) to
identify intra-regional trade opportunities between the TFTA countries, taking into account
each country’s import demand and export supply.
Results: We determined 334 such opportunities among the 26 countries, of which 232 (almost
70%) are newly recognised as not being exploited.
Conclusion: This economic potential calls for policymakers to take a more proactive approach
in their actions and recommendations by targeting these trade opportunities.

Keywords: Tripartite Free Trade Agreement; intra-regional trade; free trade; Africa; decision
support model