Identifying export opportunities for China in the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ group of countries: a decision support model approach

Purpose – This paper aims to identify China’s realistic export opportunities (REOs) among the “Belt and
Road Initiative” (BRI) group of countries.
Design/methodology/approach – The methodology used is a decision support model (DSM) that filters
data based on country risk; macro-economic country performance; market potential in terms of import growth
and import market size; and market access conditions. The high-potential REOs are revealed.
Findings – Out of the 84 BRI countries, 79 countries represent 42.5% of China’s REOs globally and 26.9%
of China’s globally untapped potential value. Interestingly, 17.9% of this untapped potential is in the BRI
countries Poland, Austria and the Czech Republic, thus providing a potentially important route into the
European Union.
Research limitations/implications – If China wants to develop additional or new markets, focus
should be put on the BRI markets outside of the top 20. China should also invest in the development of most
BRI economies, to ensure their future growth and increased demand for import of products and services from
China.
Practical implications – The shortlist of China’s REOs in the individual BRI countries makes for more
efficient planning and prioritising of export development activities. It also highlights the need for
policymakers to look beyond international trade and focus on how to also improve the domestic economies of
the BRI partners.
Originality/value – To the best of authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to use the DSM to identify
China’s REOs at HS6-digit level within the BRI group. The findings have important implications for China’s
export promotion agencies, industry associations and individual companies.
Keywords China, Export promotion, Comparative advantage, BRI, Decision support model,
International market research, Realistic export opportunities, DSM