Food price resilience in Oman: A data-driven approach

Oman relies heavily on food imports, making it particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in global markets and disruptions in supply chains. This study examines the resilience of food prices in Oman by analyzing the relationship between global and local food prices. Using monthly data from the FAO Food Price Index and Oman's consumer price index (CPI) for cereals, dairy, meat, sugar, and vegetable oils, we apply wavelet power analysis to explore both short-term and long-term connections between January 2013 and January 2024. The results show a strong positive relationship between global and Omani food prices, especially after 2020, with notable co-movement post-pandemic period. Among the food categories, cereals stand out with the strongest link, as local prices follow global trends. These findings highlight Oman's exposure to global price shocks and underline the need for policies that strengthen food security and build resilience against market volatility.