Comparing International Market Selection Methods Using Export Potential Values for South Africa

Resources for export promotion are scarce, and incorrect marketselection can be costly. In the literature, the gravity model,International Trade Center’s Export Potential Map, and decisionsupport model all estimate export potential values. Althoughthe same concept is measured, different methodologies areused. This study aimed to compare the rankings assigned tothe export potential values by each approach. The results indi-cated that 45% of the rankings differed by more than five places,while one-third were ranked in the top 10 of only one approach.Given these inconsistencies, alternative approaches for prioriti-zation after identifying export opportunities are recommended.