Artificial Intelligence, E-Commerce, and Digital Trade across Borders in Africa: Pathways to Inclusive Policy, With a Focus on Nigeria

This paper examines how artificial intelligence (AI), e-commerce, and digital trade are reshaping global trade systems and what these changes mean for Africa in general and particularly for Nigeria. These three elements now sit at the centre of modern economic transformation. AI enhances how firms make decisions, e-commerce changes how goods and services are bought and sold, and digital trade expands how value moves across borders through data, platforms, and digital services. Understanding how these systems interact is essential for countries seeking inclusive and competitive economic growth.
Africa has made notable progress in digital adoption over the past decade, but the region as a whole still lags behind, with respect to global averages, in most digital indicators. Internet penetration remains low, data affordability continues to be a challenge, and many countries struggle with outdated or inadequate digital policies. Despite these challenges, the continent has strong potential driven by a young population, rapid mobile adoption, and emerging digital entrepreneurship ecosystems. The challenge lies in turning this potential into sustained economic gains.
Nigeria reflects many of these continental dynamics. It is a country with tremendous digital promise, driven by a large, youthful population, a vibrant private sector, and significant advancements in digital financial services. The rise of mobile banking, fintech innovation, and online commerce platforms demonstrates that digital transformation is already underway. However, the country still struggles with foundational issues: inconsistent broadband access, high data costs, weak research and innovation capacity, gaps in AI readiness, limited digital skills, and fragmented regulatory frameworks.
The analysis shows that Nigeria performs unevenly across key indicators. On the one hand, the country leads in areas such as mobile money activity, fintech adoption, and commercial-scale potential for AI. On the other hand, it performs poorly in areas like research output, AI patent activity, digital literacy, broadband speed and coverage, and ICT goods production. For example, Nigeria’s digitally deliverable services (DDS) exports have grown over the years, but imports remain much higher, creating a persistent trade deficit in high-value digital services. Similarly, ICT goods exports remain extremely low, just 0.1% of total goods exports, highlighting Nigeria’s dependence on imported digital technologies.
The policy review shows that Nigeria has made commendable progress in establishing governance structures for the digital economy. Several laws, strategies, and frameworks exist, including the Data Protection Act (2023), Cybercrimes Act (2015), National Broadband Plan (2020–2025), National Digital Economy Policy and Strategy (NDEPS 2020–2030), and the draft National AI Strategy (2024). Together, these frameworks signal a strong policy intention to drive digital transformation. However, many of these instruments remain under-implemented or lack the coherence needed to fully support innovation, digital trade, and AI development.
One major gap highlighted in the report is the absence of a legally binding AI regulatory framework. The draft National AI Strategy offers an important starting point, but without formal adoption, Nigeria lacks clear rules governing AI risks, data governance, transparency, and accountability. Another gap is the lack of clarity around AI authorship and intellectual property for AI-generated works, which has become increasingly important with the rise of generative AI tools. Additionally, enforcement of cybersecurity and digital consumer protection remains limited, and the dispute-resolution systems for cross-border e-commerce transactions are underdeveloped.
Despite these limitations, Nigeria is at a decisive moment in its digital evolution. If the country strengthens its infrastructure, improves regulatory coordination, invests in research and digital skills, and builds public trust in digital platforms, it can position itself as a digital leader within Africa. The findings of this report make it clear that both government action and private-sector innovation must move in tandem. The opportunities are significant: digital trade can unlock new export markets, AI can drive productivity gains, and e-commerce can expand economic participation for households and small businesses across all regions.
Nigeria’s digital future is promising, but unlocking that promise requires deliberate, long-term commitments. With strategic reforms, increased investment, and strong institutional coordination, Nigeria can harness digital technologies as engines for inclusive growth, competitiveness, and sustainable development.