Explaining Export Duration in Kenya

This study establishes the hazard rate of exports from Kenya and identifies factors that explain the duration of exports using a discrete-time random effects logit regression model. A difference-in-differences estimator is used to assess the effects of AGOA. Export data between Kenya and 176 partners over 21 years (1995–2016) is used. We find that first-year survival rate is 39%. The median duration of Kenya’s exports is 1 year. AGOA enhances export survival, especially for apparels. COMESA also increases export survival but EAC has a dampening effect, even in SSA region. Differentiated products unlike capital-intensive products improve export survival.